Canada’s Wildfire Crisis and the Promise of Digital Twins

As Canada confronts the escalating impacts of climate change—manifested prominently through larger wildfires, increased flood risks, and growing traffic congestion—the need for innovative solutions has never been more pressing. In 2024, insured disaster losses soared to a staggering $8.5 billion, undermining the federal government’s ambitious infrastructure investment plan of at least $180 billion over the next 12 years. A significant portion of this disaster response expenditure could be mitigated through the strategic use of digital twins, a groundbreaking technology that can enhance preparedness and resource efficiency by simulating real-world systems.

The Need for Innovative Solutions

Recent years have been marked by some of the worst wildfire seasons in Canadian history. For example, the wildfire season of 2023 was the worst recorded, burning over 18 million hectares. The urgency for enhanced preparation becomes evident, particularly when recalling the chaotic evacuations during the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, where residents faced conflicting information and a traffic jam on the single evacuation route.

Given the rising frequency of such catastrophic events, policymakers require advanced tools to analyze potential risks and impacts before decisions are made on resource management and urban planning. This is where digital twins come into play.

What is a Digital Twin?

A digital twin is a dynamic virtual model that mirrors the operations of real-world systems—like transportation, utilities, and emergency services. By integrating maps, 3D models, and live data, this sophisticated model allows planners to run "what-if" scenarios to prepare for various emergency situations effectively.

For instance, digital twins can model how traffic will be affected by a lane closure, a new bus route, or an evacuation order due to a wildfire. Singapore serves as a leading example of effective digital twin usage; the city has documented substantial efficiency gains through real-time simulations for urban planning and emergency responses.

Benefit #1: Safer Wildfire Evacuations

With Canada’s wildfire seasons worsening, empowering emergency teams to rehearse evacuation procedures becomes crucial. The ability to test detours, traffic signals, and emergency procedures in advance can save lives. The chaos during the recent Yellowknife evacuation highlighted the need for a clear and effective communication strategy. A national digital twin could streamline these processes, offering real-time data to aid in managing evacuation routes and emergency responses. This proactive approach would ensure that emergency services can anticipate traffic flows and prevent congestion in crisis situations.

Benefit #2: Faster, More Reliable Commutes

Traffic congestion continues to plague Canadian cities, costing billions in economic and societal impacts. A 2024 report estimated that traffic congestion cost Ontario approximately $56.4 billion, mainly through deteriorated quality of life linked to stress and delays. Implementing digital twins can enable transit agencies to test new infrastructure ideas— like dedicated bus lanes or updates to signal timings—prior to actual deployment.

Vancouver International Airport’s real-time digital twin serves as a model for optimizing passenger flows and could be similarly employed in urban transit systems, reducing disruptions and enhancing mobility throughout Canadian cities.

Benefit #3: Better Use of Tax Dollars

Infrastructure projects in Canada frequently face cost overruns, draining public budgets. For example, the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has ballooned from an estimated $5.3 billion to nearly $34 billion, underscoring the crisis of budget management in public works. Digital twins can help mitigate these losses by identifying potential design conflicts early, allowing for parallel comparison of options and enhancing transparency with the public.

Research indicates that such technology can save approximately 20% of a project’s contract value by resolving conflicts early, demonstrating the significant financial returns that a national digital twin initiative can provide.

From Scattered Projects to a National Framework

Canada is well-positioned to develop a national digital twin, thanks to existing initiatives from cities like Toronto and Vancouver, which already publish vast troves of spatial data. By building on these foundations and connecting disparate efforts, Canada can establish a coherent national framework.

This involves agreeing on shared rules and formats while adhering to clear privacy and security standards. Engaging communities, reporters, and independent experts in a transparency-focused approach will be crucial for public trust and efficacy.

Learning from Global Leaders

Canada need not invent a new framework for digital twin implementation; rather, it can adopt best practices and principles from global leaders such as the United Kingdom and Singapore. The Gemini Principles from the U.K. provide an excellent guideline focused on public benefit, transparency, and safety, while examples from Singapore highlight the real-world impacts of effective digital twin integration.

By leveraging existing frameworks and learning from past implementations, Canada can accelerate its digital twin development. This expedited process can significantly enhance wildfire evacuation preparedness and commute reliability while establishing a national digital twin that bolsters resilience, protects privacy, and ultimately improves the quality of daily life for Canadians.

In conclusion, as Canada faces increasingly severe climate challenges, prioritizing the adoption of innovative technologies like digital twins can bring transformative benefits. Not only do these solutions hold the promise of safer evacuations and more efficient urban transport, but they also enhance fiscal responsibility in public spending, paving the way for a more resilient future.