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“Construct, Baby, Construct” — Greater Fool by Garth Turner: The Uncertain Future of Real Estate

The Housing Crisis in Canada: A Deep Dive into Build Canada Homes

Schooner

Canada is in the throes of a housing crisis, a dilemma that has plagued citizens, policymakers, and politicians alike. Last weekend, Prime Minister Mark Carney stood surrounded by construction workers in a nondescript suburb, confidently asserting that he was poised to be the country’s savior. "Canadians are in a housing crisis," he declared, echoing a familiar sentiment that has been voiced by previous leaders, including Justin Trudeau. The question is: will this time be different?

A Sea of Rhetoric

The phrase “Canadians are in a housing crisis” rings hollow after years of similar declarations, which have yielded little more than empty promises and ineffective programs. Billions have been allocated in an attempt to alleviate the issue, yet the crisis persists. So, what exactly does Prime Minister Carney propose to do under his new initiative, Build Canada Homes, and will it genuinely help the younger generation, particularly those in Gen Z, find a place to call home?

Unpacking the Plan: Build Canada Homes

What’s on the Table?

The initiative is packed with ambitious rhetoric aimed at tackling the crisis:

  • Affordability Goals: The plan promises to create “deeply affordable” and community housing for low-income households and partner with private developers for middle-class homes.
  • Modern Methods of Construction: It advocates leveraging public lands and encouraging modern construction techniques, including prefabrication and 3D printing, to expedite the building process and reduce costs.
  • Financial Incentives: Cities may receive funds to halve development charges for five years, potentially easing the financial burden on buyers significantly.

Ultimately, this ambitious endeavor is projected to cost around $36 billion. However, does this funding translate into real solutions for the housing affordability crisis?

The Costs and Expected Impact

Rapid Construction and Costs

Carney aims to double the pace of new construction by adopting modern techniques and reducing costs. The GST on new builds will be scrapped, which could potentially save buyers up to $200,000 on high-priced properties.

The initial goal includes constructing 4,000 new housing units in six key cities: Dartmouth, Longueuil, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg, and Edmonton. In addition, substantial funds will target shelters for the unhoused, with an allocation of $1 billion, and another $1.5 billion to protect rental units from being converted into expensive condo towers.

Implications for Affordability

Despite this well-intentioned plan, the core question remains: Will it genuinely lead to more affordable housing in urban areas like Toronto and Vancouver, which are grappling with housing costs that consume an overwhelming percentage of household income?

Currently, a household allocation of 30% of pre-tax income for housing is deemed affordable. Yet, the average Canadian household now spends around 55%, while Toronto’s rate stands at 68%, and Vancouver shockingly reaches nearly 93%. Although the market has seen some adjustments with prices stabilizing, the targeted 30% threshold remains elusive for many.

Evaluating Build Canada Homes

While Build Canada Homes may address critical issues such as increasing the availability of social housing, assisting vulnerable populations, and facilitating streamlined construction, skepticism inevitably arises. Flooding the market with 500,000 new housing units in a few years might not curtail exorbitant prices in major urban centers.

The history of past administrations suggests a pattern of well-meaning initiatives that end up mired in bureaucratic inefficiency. Critics argue this latest initiative might merely create another federal agency that will struggle to deliver on its promises, leaving Canadians still searching for solutions in five years.

Hope on the Horizon?

In the eye of a persistent housing crisis, it is crucial to adjust our expectations. Will Carney’s plan break the cycle of inadequate responses to the dire housing situation? Advocates and skeptics alike continue to ponder what practical outcomes will emerge from this initiative aimed at revitalizing the Canadian housing market.

A Parting Thought

As we reflect on this ambitious undertaking, it’s vital to remember not just the policy implications but also the human stories behind the statistics. The urgency of the housing crisis demands action, but whether Build Canada Homes is a step toward that action or yet another promise going unfulfilled remains to be seen.


About the Picture: "Hi Garth. Here’s a doggie pic for the blog," writes Derek. "This is my Sis babysitting ‘Schooner’ while his owner is away. Apparently, he likes to ‘watch the road’ while riding in the car…"

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email us at [email protected]

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