The Historic Decline of New Home Sales in the GTA: A 2025 Recap

As we usher in the new year, December marked not just the end of 2025, but a significant period of reflection for the Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA) housing market. News from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) paints a sobering picture: December capped off the worst year on record for new home sales in the GTA, igniting concerns regarding future housing supply, job stability, and the economic health of the region.

A Record Low: December Sales Figures

The numbers are stark. In December 2025, only 240 new homes were sold, a staggering 24% decline from December 2024, and a whopping 82% below the 10-year average. Typically, December sales would hover around 1,327, indicating a sharp deviation from expected performance. It’s noteworthy that December 2024 had already established a record low. This paints a grim picture of the current market dynamics, highlighted by Edward Jegg, Research Manager at Altus Group, who stated, “Never in the 45 years that new home sales data have been collected for the GTA have we seen just 5,300 sales for an entire year.”

The total sales for 2025 reached a mere 5,314, officially marking the lowest annual total on record.

Segment Breakdown: Condos vs. Single-Family Homes

Among the various segments of the market, condo apartments experienced the most dramatic decline. Just 87 units were sold in December, a 42% decrease year-over-year and a staggering 91% shortfall compared to the 10-year average. Meanwhile, single-family homes fared slightly better, with 153 sales recorded, down 8% from last December and 59% below the long-term average.

For the full year, single-family homes totaled 3,247 sales, representing a 63% drop from the 10-year average, while condo sales amounted to just 2,067, an 89% downturn from historical norms.

Prospects for 2026: Persistent Challenges Ahead

Looking forward, the concerns that plagued buyers throughout 2025 are anticipated to linger into the new year. “Geopolitical concerns are likely to endure, prices remain elevated, and the Bank of Canada has signaled an end to the cycle of interest rate cuts,” said Jegg. These persistent issues are expected to continue to impact buyer confidence and market activity well into 2026, complicating an already troubled landscape.

Inventory Crisis: A Surging Supply

Compounding the challenges, the inventory of new homes is also climbing. By December, the GTA saw a staggering 20,849 units still on the market, which translates into 26 months of supply based on recent sales figures. This represents the highest level of inventory recorded to date and underscores the problem of excess supply in a stagnating market.

Economic Ramifications: Jobs on the Line

Industry leaders are sounding the alarm, warning that the slowdown carries dire economic consequences. Justin Sherwood, COO of BILD, remarked, “New home sales are down well into the double digits across the province, putting 100,000 jobs at risk in Ontario alone.” He further emphasized the severity of the situation by suggesting that to find a comparable collapse in new home construction, one would have to look back to the 1940s. “New home construction is a cornerstone of our economy,” Sherwood concluded, “yet it has effectively stalled.”

The Pricing Landscape: Holding Steady

Despite the significant drop in sales, prices appear to be holding relatively steady. The benchmark price for new condominiums in December was $1,021,235, while the average price for new single-family homes reached $1,409,725, reflecting a 9% decrease over the past year.

Conclusion: An Uncertain Future for the GTA Housing Market

When analyzing December’s data, it is clear that the GTA’s new home market didn’t just falter in 2025; it came to a grinding halt. With sales figures at unprecedented lows, mounting inventory levels, and economic repercussions threatening employment, the housing landscape in the GTA is fraught with uncertainty. Moving forward, urgent changes, such as the elimination of HST on new homes, may be necessary to entice buyers back to the market and revitalize an industry critical to the region’s economic health. As the new year unfolds, all eyes will remain on the GTA housing market to see how it navigates these daunting challenges.